| The rational decisions module is very popular but being demanding and
time consuming; it is supplemented by the Bounded Rationality to help managers
meet the daunting task of making decisions at work. The rational model
involves steps like determining the problem, developing alternate solutions,
evaluating alternates, choosing the best alternate, verifying and applying
the solution. Bounded rationality suggests that the number of alternates
developed is limited and the level of satisfaction of the decision maker
is more reasonable to ensure making decisions within time limits, which
is difficult, is the number of alternates, is large and the decision maker’s
level of satisfaction or aspiration is very high.
Thinking is the very basis of decisions making. So let us concentrate
on it.
Here I am not going into the details of the modules but presenting
an interesting tool that I am sharing with you. It is based on the concept
given by Edward De Bono the well known authority on thinking.
THE SIX THINKING HATS
Each 'Thinking Hat' is a different style of thinking. These are explained
below:
1. WHITE HAT:
With this thinking hat you focus on the data available. Look at the
information you have, and see what you can learn from it. Look for gaps
in your knowledge, and either try to fill them or take account of them.
This is where you analyze past trends, and try to extrapolate from historical
data.
2. RED HAT:
'Wearing' the red hat, you look at problems using intuition, gut reaction,
and emotion. Also try to think how other people will react emotionally.
Try to
understand the responses of people who do not fully know your reasoning.
3. BLACK HAT:
Using black hat thinking, you look at all the bad points of the decision.
Look at it cautiously and defensively. Try to see why it might not work.
This is important because it highlights the weak points in a plan. It allows
you to eliminate them, alter them, or prepare contingency plans to counter
them. Black Hat thinking helps to make your plans 'tougher' and more resilient.
It can also help you to spot fatal flaws
and risks before you embark on a course of action.Black Hat thinking
is one of the real benefits of this technique, as many successful people
get so used to thinking positively that often they cannot see problems
in advance. This leaves them under-prepared for difficulties.
4. YELLOW HAT:
The yellow hat helps you to think positively. It is the optimistic
viewpoint that helps you to see all the benefits of the decision and the
value in it. Yellow Hat thinking helps you to keep going when everything
looks gloomy and difficult.
5. GREEN HAT
The Green Hat stands for creativity. This is where you can develop
creative solutions to a problem. It is a freewheeling way of thinking,
in which there is little
criticism of ideas. A whole range of creativity tools can help you
here. This hat is so common to war on. It needs creativity that is also
not extinct but uncommon
as our corporate culture rarely encourages it.
6. BLUE HAT:
The Blue Hat stands for process control. This is the hat worn by people
chairing meetings. When running into difficulties because ideas are running
dry, they
may direct activity into Green Hat thinking. When contingency plans
are needed, they will ask for Black Hat thinking, etc.
A variant of this technique is to look at problems from the point of
view of different professionals (e.g. doctors, architects, sales directors,
etc.) or different customers.
Example:
The directors of XYZ Company are looking at whether they should construct
a new office building at prime location in the town. It is a huge project
involving
lot of time and cost. The economy is doing well, and the amount of
vacant office space is reducing sharply. As part of their decision they
decide to use the 6
Thinking Hats technique during a planning meeting.Looking at the problem
with the White Hat, they analyze the data they have. They examine the trend
in vacant office space, which shows a sharp reduction.They anticipate that
by the time the office block would be completed, that there will be a severe
shortage of office space. Current government projections show steady economic
growth for at least the construction period. With Red Hat thinking, some
of the directors think the proposed building looks quite ugly. While it
would be highly cost-effective, they worry that people would not like to
work in it.
When they think with the Black Hat, they worry that government projections
may be wrong. The economy may be about to enter a 'cyclical downturn',
in which case
the office building may be empty for a long time. If the building is
not attractive, then companies will choose to work in another better-looking
building at the same rent. With the Yellow Hat, however, if the economy
holds up and their projections are correct, the company stands to make
a great deal of money. If they are lucky,
maybe they could sell the building before the next downturn, or rent
to tenants on long-term leases that will last through any recession. With
Green Hat thinking they consider whether they should change the design
to make the building more
pleasant. Perhaps they could build prestige offices that people would
want to rent in any economic climate. Alternatively, maybe they should
invest the money in the short term to buy up property at a low cost when
a recession comes. The Blue Hat has been used by the meeting's Chair to
move between the different thinking styles. He or she may have needed to
keep other members of the team from switching styles, or from criticizing
other peoples' points.
It is well worth reading Edward de Bono's book 6 Thinking Hats for more
information on this technique.
CONCLUSION:
Six Thinking Hats is a very effective technique for looking at the
effects of a decision from a number of different points of view. It allows
necessary emotion and skepticism to be brought into what would otherwise
be purely rational decisions. It opens up the opportunity for creativity
within Decision Making. The technique also helps, for example, persistently
pessimistic people to be positive and creative.
Plans developed using the Six Thinking Hats' technique will be sounder
and more resilient than would otherwise be the case. It may also help you
to avoid public relations mistakes, and spot good reasons not to follow
a course of action before you have committed to it.
Now let us think that it is not limited to mega projects. Other decisions
can also be considered with the help of this technique. However, applying
this tool to routine decisions is not advisable as it is too elaborate.
Decisions that have ;on range impact and need thorough consideration e.g.
launching a new product, opening a new branch, change in organization set
up, mergers and the like are better targeted with is technique.
DO IT YOURSELF
Find out a problem or situation currently at your desk awaiting a decision.
Take time out to wear these hats one by one and go through the process
to find out the efficacy of the suggested styles.
Majec lectures at MBA programs at different universities at karachi
and addresses professional audiences at NIPA and otherother training/business
organizations. He is former Chairman Pakistan Insurance Insittute/Divisional
Head Sate Life and author of four books.
You can write to the author with feedback, questions and/or criticism
majec2001_pk@yahoo.com
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