Astronomy of Islamic Calendar.
By Mohammad Ilyas. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.: A. S. Noordeen, 1997, 254 pp.
Lunar Calendar Practices in Islamic, Chinese, Hindu and Other Civilizations.
Penang: Astro. $ Atmos. Sc. Research Unit, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), 2000, 65 pp.
The Quest for a Unified Islamic Calendar: 25 years of progress. By Mohammad Ilyas. Penang, Malaysia: Intl. Islamic Calendar Program, USM, 2000, vii. 63 pp.

Dr. Mohammad Ilyas is a well-known figure for his splendid work on topics related to Islamic calendar. His contributions for the development of an Islamic lunar calendar are remarkable despite some glaring discrepancies in data analysis and faulty stipulations. 

Dr. Ilyas was instrumental in establishing the International Islamic Calendar Programme (IICP) at Universiti Sains Malaysia, and for creating broad awareness about the need for a unified Islamic calendar. The works under review are important to understand the development of his ideas, and in identifying the perplexing problems.  His search for answers to perplexing Islamic calendar issues started in 1974. During Phase I (1974-1983) his concern was to find a reliable criterion to accurately forecast the beginning of an Islamic month and the lunar dateline (ILDL). During Phase II (1984-1989) he collected data, refined his proposed criterion and worked towards a global network. In Phase III (1990-1994) he concentrated on popularizing his ‘regional’ Islamic calendars. During Phase IV (1995-2000) his emphasis was on gathering support from religio-political establishments of the Islamic world for his ‘Imakane Ru’yah’ (possibility of sighting) proposal.
 

1. OIC Launching Satellite to Help Determine Islamic Dates

2. Moon sighting and Islamic Calendar.
Why Different Months begin from different days in different places and communities?
Why Can't We Celebrate Eidul Fitar on the same Day?

By the middle of the 20th century rapid development in communications confirmed that the Islamic dates were chaotic, and Muslims were celebrating Eidain on two, three and sometimes four different days in the same country. Efforts to develop a ‘unified’ Islamic calendar started with Istanbul, Kuwait and other meetings, but failed due to lack of consensus. As no satisfactory solution was in sight some Muslim countries chose their own way of ‘unifying’ the dates within their boundaries, and abandoned ‘visibility’, without ever publicly announcing it.

Abdali (1977) wrote a computer program that predicted the earliest global lunar visibility with a wide uncertainty zone. Yallop, Schaefer, Caldwell and others tried to further refine the visibility prediction from available data. Monzur’s widely used “Mooncalc’ incorporating Yallop’s suggestion has extended the visibility limits to the maximum.

All attempts to “unify” Islamic calendar dates based on the crescent moon’s ‘visibility’ or ‘conjunction (the New Moon phase) are futile. Ilyas appears to acknowledge only one fact: “a moving Lunar Dateline will result in an Islamic day spanning two solar dates.” But he and other 

Muslim astronomers have ignored more basic factors of calendar making. A universal calendar must have only one date that begins from a fixed point in time and place. International Dateline, Meridian, etc. are only to felicitate the process.

An Islamic day/date begins from sunset, and the month begins from the earliest sighting of a crescent moon. No calendar may be made on the basis of the “Conjunction” as it occurs at all times of day and night, or ‘visibility’. Strict visibility and Imakan-al-Ru’yah both will always have two, and may be more first dates, as they extend in a parabola. Another major problem is created by the ever-shifting lunar dateline. It results in the same month being of 29 days in parts of the globe and 30 days in others.
Validating ‘Imkaan’ as an argument (‘Shara’i Daleel) requires creating ‘conventions’. It will be acceptable to the Ummah only if it satisfies the established criterion of ‘Ru’yah’ (Visible Moon) and ‘Imkaan’ (possibility) in near absolute geographical terms. Instead of suggesting arbitrary points we may define the Islamic lunar date criterion in terms of:
1. A fixed point of time   2) A fixed lunar dateline 

The ‘conjunction’ is a fixed point in time that may be very accurately calculated, and so is the International Dateline fixed in space. A convention may be adopted that:

 IF THE ‘CONJUNCTION’ OCCURS AROUND THE IDL (between 160W-100E) THE FIRST DATE OF AN ISLAMIC MONTH WILL BE COUNTED FROM THE NEXT SOLAR DATE AT 180E. 
IF THE CONJUNCTION OCCURS BETWEEN 101E -160W THE FIRST DATE WILL BE DELAYED TO THE SECOND SOLAR DATE AT 180E.

This formulation assumes: 
1. the ‘Conjunction’ around the IDL (both fixed), and 
2. ‘Assumed sighting (Ru’yah) before 180W. 

Imkaan of ‘actual sighting of a crescent moon is close to ‘CERTAIN’ in both cases. In the first scenario the first Islamic date begins from the IDL when the moon’s age is approximately 18-28 hours. In the second situation the moon may be 36 hours old.

Of course, all Muslims in every corner of the world will not be able to see a visible crescent in their area, but it will satisfy the Qur’anic requirement for most of the world. If we reduce it to the SAME DATE’ AT 180E then we will ignore the ‘visibility’ totally. A crescent moon will not be seen anywhere except occasionally in the western most US or Hawaii.
Highly recommended for Ulema and inquisitive readers.

Imkaan or Yaqeen?
 Omar Afzal

 With the rapid progress made during the last two decades in predicting the earliest visibility of a crescent moon, the demand for a pre-calculated’ Islamic lunar calendar has gained ground. Often those who endorse ‘computed Islamic calendar’ for the ‘unity of Ummah’ have never seriously thought over the issues involved in computing a global Islamic calendar. For years, a new magic chant is heard: ‘Imkaan’ is the solution. The question is: Can we make ‘Imkaan al-Ru’yah’ (possibility of visibility) a valid ‘Shara’i’ argument for declaring the beginning of an Islamic month? 

A very strong case may be made against ‘Imkaan’ on the following grounds:

a) It is not the ‘actual sighting’.
The Qur’an, and Sunnah, require the actual visibility of the crescent moon, and not mere ‘knowledge’ of its existence. It goes against the established norms of  ‘evidence’ (Shahada) as well. The Messenger (S) pointed to the ‘Imkaan’ of sighting on the 29th evening. The moon is always there. But he asked Muslims not to go by mere ‘Imkaan’. They were instructed to go look for the visible new moon to be sure. The Messenger (S) began the next month only when a crescent was actually confirmed. In case it was not visible, he asked to count 30 days of the lunar month, as on the 30th evening a moon is always ‘seen’.

b)   Muslim judges used terms such as ‘overwhelming possibility’ (Ghalabat al-Zann) and ‘Near certainty’ (Ghalabat al-Yaqeen) to formulate the criteria for the beginning and ending of Ramadan. 
Contrary to the oft quoted ‘Araabi’ Hadith (to accept every claim of a crescent observation made by a Muslim) 'Amir-i Makka' Hadith requires at least two witnesses from a locality. On a clear sky Imam Malik, Imam Abu Hanifa and many other Fuqaha require a big crowd (Jam'un Azim). Imam Jafar Sadiq required at least 50 witnesses. As mistakes and deception increased Imam Abu Yusuf (as the Qadi of Bughdad) required at least 50 witnesses. Later he increased the number to "a big group from each mosque in the city." Imam Khalaf b. Ayyub required 500 in Bukhara. 

Fuqaha and Qudat asked for a larger number not because they ignored the Arabi and other Ahadith, or did not take the ‘Imkaan’ seriously. It was because they followed the principle of "Ghalabat-az-Zan" (a mandate for certainty). Obviously, on a clear sky not one or two but all those who try must be able to see a crescent. Similarly, from Hadrat Umar (R) onwards hundreds of Qudat all over the world rejected 'pious' Muslim witnesses because other 'Qarain' strongly pointed against their testimony.

c) The inherent fuzziness of ‘Imkaan’ strongly argues against it as a valid criterion. 

‘Imkaan’ (mere possibility) may be stretched, depending on one’s preference, to mean from a ‘remote possibility’ to ‘probability’ or ‘near certainty’. In practice, Muslims in recent years, have consistently used ‘Imkaan’ to justify unacceptable dates for their Islamic rituals. Many Muslim countries officially declare Islamic dates on what they believe is ‘Imkaan’. For example:

1. In the latest Saudi calendarical formulations the Islamic month starts when the moon sets after the sun. Their earlier definition of ‘Imkaan’ resulted in Saudi dates being one or two days before the actual visibility. Egypt used a ‘5 minutes after sunset’ ‘Imkaan’ since 1967 (modified to ‘one minute after sunset’ in 1988).

2. Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, etc. use their own ‘Imkaan’ threshold  to determine the first dates of their lunar Islamic month. 
3. Turkey’s criterion of 8 degrees angle/5 degrees altitude is also based on ‘Imkaan’.

In N. America, many groups have used ‘moonset with the sun or seconds later’ to declare Ramadan and  Eidain, because in their mind ‘Imkaan’ is enough to accept the most absurd claims of actual sighting. 

Fiqh positions on a global sighting

The Sunnah and Fiqh positions related only to local sightings as Imam Muslim, Imam Tirmidhi and many Muhadditheen clearly stated: For each town it’s own visibility. They claim that there is a consensus of the ‘knowledgeable on this position ("Li Kulli Baladin Ru'yatuhum...wa Alaihi Ijma'-u Ahlal Ilm" ). The Muslims faced no serious problems initially as means of communications did not exist to send the sighting reports quickly just 15-20 miles away (see Fa Qadima A'rabiyaan Hadith). Later when a few Fuqaha interpreted "Sumu…" as a general command extending to all Muslims then questions were raised as to what distances between two places will be counted for the sighting to be valid? Ulema were busy arguing if 'the whole world is a horizon", or "A sighting is restricted to its area only" when in 1950s the means of sending a news exploded.  Radio could convey the news of sighting to hundreds of miles away where the moon was NOT and could NOT be sighted. Ulema were unable to sort out any strategy when the telephone and television transformed the whole world into a village. Now the news of sighting spreads globally in seconds. The Ummah, now spread to all corners of the globe, is confused, as the Muslim countries and communities cannot agree to any criterion to determine the first day of the Islamic months.

Validity of calculations

 Some argue against using any computation for determining the Islamic dates. The fallacy of their argument is evident.

1. The Quran (6:96, 55:5, etc.) confirms that the moon's movement is by "Hisaab".
 (The computation for the New Moon was known for 3,000+ years. But for a CRESCENT moon  "Hisaab" remained elusive till about 1980 when computers could plot the extent of the VISIBLE
 moon’s parabola, and observations consistently confirmed it months after months since1981.

 2. The Messenger (S) could never forbid what the Quran confirms (6:96, 55:5, etc.)

 3. Calculations tell exactly which 'Manzil' the moon is in at any given second.

 4. It is in conformity with the Sunnah of "Uhsu Hilaal Sha'ban li-Ramadan..

5. It is what the Messenger (S) meant when he said: … Faqdiru lah. 
It eliminates the chances of  mistakes, and determines exactly when to fast, or break the fast.

6. Ummiya Hadith describes the situation in Medina then, and it cannot be taken to be a general command against 'writing and computation'. (Some interpret it as a permanent command but restricts it to the use of 'Hisaab' for the moon only without any valid reason for this ‘ikhtisaas’.) 

7. Tabi'in, Muhadditheen, and Fuqaha like Imam Abu Hanifa , and Shafi'i allowed calculation in an era when they were not accurate. From Subki to Qaradawi  many Ulema insist on Hisab to stop the present chaos created by 'witnesses'. The "Hisaab" is accurate to a fraction of a second.

Islamic month and Islamic day/date

 “Hisaab’ of Manazil al-Qamar is accurate but several problems remain unresolved.

 The Islamic month begins from a visible crescent after sunset. An Islamic date begins from Sunset. Other factors create major problems for any calendar maker. Without tackling the following tough issues, the possibility of uniting the Muslim Ummah on a ‘calculated’ calendar are almost nil.

1. Crescent-sighting starts from a different place every month. There is no fixed dateline.

2.  The earliest visibility at the apex extends in a parabola westward till it covers the whole globe in two and sometimes three solar dates.

3. The earth is a globe and not a flat field. Town A sees the moon but Town B (just a few miles east or north-south of A outside the parabola) cannot see it until the next evening 24 hours later.
Each of these 'physical' facts of sighting creates hurdles for a global unified lunar calendar. Muslims wish to be "globally united" on these dates. They require a ‘sighting. They insist on following the Qur’an and the Sunnah. In Europe and Americas they like to celebrate with their home countries, etc. and to achieve this everyone has a perfect and easy solution without knowing the A,B,C of the moon's sightability. 

Imkaan based on geographical  absolutes

For pre-calculating an Islamic lunar calendar we face difficult choices and simplistic solutions like adopting ‘Imkaan’ will not solve anything. For years some Muslim scholars have advocated adopting the "Conjunction" (New Moon) as determining the beginning of an Islamic lunar month. But they do not realize the disadvantages of the "Conjunction" over the ‘sighted crescent’.  Conjunction occurs at any time of day and night. How are we going to determine the first "date" and from which point on the globe? How the Islamic day will be determined? At present the Islamic day/date start after sunset when the Hilal is first seen. If we switch to "conjunction", it may be, for example, at mid-day somewhere. At that point in time it would be from mid-morning to mid-night at other places. If for example, the conjunction occurs at 2.30 p.m. Should we fast from 2.30 p.m. or break our fast / celebrate Eid at 2.30 p.m. (Mid-day)? What if it occurs at 10 minutes before or after sunset? How the day/date would be counted?

If we go by ‘Imkaan’ then what will determine the ‘Imkaan al-Ru’yah’? Will it be the earliest recorded visibility or a mean of a few recorded visible moons? Year after year we have received claims of actual sighting from people who are interested more in getting their names in the record books, like this from Iran: “… succeeded to observe the crescent in the dusk of Friday January 7th 2000 …if 8.065 degrees separation is correct, we are in the first place all over the world. The present figure of the least angular separation of the new Moon is 8.53 degrees that belongs to Mr. James Stamm from U.S.A.  (By the way, this crescent was not seen on Friday, Jan. 7 evening 8-10 hours later from New York to St. Louis MO (Eastern and Mid States) in clear skies by competent observers). 

Validating ‘Imkaan’ as an argument (‘Shara’i Daleel) requires creating a ‘convention’. It will be acceptable to the Ummah only if satisfies the established criterion of ‘Ru’yah’ and ‘Imkaan’ in near absolute geographical terms. Instead of suggesting arbitrary points we may define it in terms of:

1. A fixed point of time   2) A fixed lunar dateline 
The ‘conjunction’ is a fixed point in time that may be very accurately calculated, and so is the International Dateline fixed in space. A convention may be adopted that:

 IF THE ‘CONJUNCTION’ OCCURS AROUND THE IDL (between 160W-100E) THE FIRST DATE OF AN ISLAMIC MONTH WILL BE COUNTED FROM THE NEXT DATE AT 180E. 
IF THE CONJUNCTION OCCURS BETWEEN 100E -160W THE FIRST DATE WILL BE DELAYED TO THE SECOND DATE AT 180E.

This formulation assumes 1. the ‘Conjunction’ around the IDL (both fixed), and 2. ‘assumed Ru’yah’ before 180W. Imkaan of ‘actual sighting of a crescent moon is close to ‘CERTAIN’ in both cases. In the first scenario the first Islamic date begins from the IDL when the moon’s age is approximately 18-28 hours. In the second situation the moon may be 36 hours old.

Of course, all Muslims in every corner of the world will not be able to see a visible crescent in their area, but it will satisfy the Qur’anic requirement for most of the world. If we reduce it to the SAME DATE’ AT 180E then we will ignore the ‘visibility’ totally. A crescent moon not be seen anywhere except in the western most US or Hawaii occasionally.

Why Do We Differ?
 Omar Afzal

We Muslims 'sight' a moon and immediately spread the news to the rest of the world. Half of the world has already started a new day. In the other half no moon is seen, or seen within a narrow parabola. Now the shouting starts: One witness is enough for the whole world. What about those who did not or cannot see a moon that evening? Why should they fast or celebrate Eid? Isn't the Quran and the Sunnah also requires them to follow the 'crescent'? What about if the witnesses mistook some man-made object as a moon, or unintentionally 'lied'? Actually he did not see it himself but called X and got the news that: ... , and... (country) has Ramadan/Eid next day. He changes it to: "The moon has been sighted". The next person believes that this 'pious' Muslim has seen the moon himself.  The rumor spreads like a wildfire. What if a person  looked to a calendar and claimed: 30 days over. It is also very easy to 'see' some non-existing object if you are expecting it.

Another favorite answer is: All Muslims who share the same night must celebrate. Do we understand that the whole world shares the same night. 
How do you decide where this common night started on the globe? 

The Ulema and leaders jump into the fray and start issuing Fatawa in support of this or that position though they have little understanding of the basic rules of the moon's sightability. Here is s sample of what we face. 
 One group ASSUMES that FOLLOW the SUNNAH means:The Muslims cannot use  moon's calculation for checking a witness (Ummiya Hadith), and must accept all (including spurious) claims of sightings (Arabi Hadith), etc.

Have they ever thought how many SUNNAH they ask you to violate? when:

1. You don't see a crescent on your clear sky but you fast or celebrate Eid. (La Tasumu ... La Tuftiru..means DON'T unless VISIBLE in your town. It is a physical reality, not a matter of Fiqh.
Why should you? Only because someone else saw (??) somewhere and you received the NEWS?

2. It is cloudy on the 29 day in your town but you celebrate Eid because the NEWS comes from thousands of miles away. Is not by saying: Fa in Ghumma Alaikum...the Messenger (S) asked you to continue fasting for 30 days. 

3. The sky is clear and nobody in your town sees a crescent. But you celebrate Eid as some calendar somewhere in your home country showed 30 days of the month complete, and you get the news. Do you know that Ibn Abbas asked Kuraib to fast 31 days when a crescent was not seen in Medina on 29 Ramadan (But Kuraib's 30th) day) saying: Haakadha Amaranaa Rasulullah. (Muslim, and other four Sihah, Nawawi's Subul as-Salaam, etc.)

This is only a sample to prove that 
 a) This group follows a human  'interpretation' of a Hadith, and 
b)They are 'selective' in following a Sunnah of only what they like. They should realize that all Muslims follow the Quran and Sunnah (May be not their or their preferred 'scholar's' interpretation).

The other group also follows 'sighting' but takes help from the moon's calculations now readily available everywhere. 

monz@gut.org.uk   10/10/03

Dear Br. Monzur,

The actual observation reports for the last 20+ months have raised some questions about your notations on A-D visibility curves. I think you should modify them to reflect the actual visibility more accurately.

At present,
                  A curve is for  "Easily visible".
It should be                    "Visible in normal conditions"
                 B               "If perfect condition"
Should be                       "Difficult to see;Use binoculars"
                C               "Optical aid to find moon"
Should be                       "Only with optical aid"
                D               "Visible with optical aid only"
Should be                       "Visible with telescope only"

The present notation is tempting for a lot of lay people to claim naked eye sightings in C and D zones.

Recent attempts to sight Sha'ban moon are a good example.

 "A" curve did not touch N. America. 
 In "B", expert observers like Jim Stamm located the moon with a telescope, followed its path with a binocular and could hardly see it with naked eye for three minutes. But two more people claimed sighting it through binoculars (no details provided). Surprisingly
five persons, including an Imam claimed to have seen it in Detroit, MI  (located outside any possible visibility curve).

At least 7 teams in the "B" area (Houstan, TX, Tempe, Kingman, Bullet, all in AZ, San Diego and L.A. in CA) and three teams in "C" area (Sacramento, San Francisco, and Stockton, CA) did not see any moon despite very clear skies. Some of them had binoculars, and are quite experienced in moon-watch.

Shawwal 1424 moon-sighting claims will be a good test Only Mexico and Panama, etc. are in the "Easy" zone. From Florida to southern California area is in the "B" zone.  Most of the USA is in C and D zones.  Canada is in "NOT VISIBLE by any means" zone. 

Let us see how many from what area claim? ME is going to have Eid al-Fitr on 25th Nov. simply because they will "complete 30 days" as they will start Ramadan on Oct. 26. For them "sighting" is "IRRELEVANT".

Omar Afzal_____________